I'm pretty sure the open-source "community" is really a free market in software. The currency is reputation. That's why people are willing to do so much stuff without pay- they actually do get paid via reputation. They get a reputation with people like me when they write something that works for me, and they get a more significant reputation with coders who can read their code and appreciate it.
I think this is why the open-source companies often are at odds with the open-source "community." The community (I'm tired of the quotes) is supersensitive to reputation issues, but the companies will compromise on certain issues in order sell more products. Thus, the various Microsoft deals that companies have made recently result in rather vitriolic reactions. The reactions are part of the reputation economy; as a currency reputation leaves much to be desired because reputations can be tainted by such things as close association with Microsoft.
There isn't an easy way to transfer between reputation currency and regular currency either. Instead of a market, its more like a line in the sand. When someone crosses, it's like completely dropping out of one world and into another.
I don't think the community is very good at prediction. No one is very good at prediction, but I think the companies are slightly better at it because they want to make money. In the open-source community you don't have to make good predictions to get a reputation. You just write good code and/or take an increasingly radical position to get a reputation.
Which leaves us blind.
Good areas of research:
Can a more liquid market between reputation and regular currency be created?
How can we provide incentives to those with reputations to make more accurate predictions?
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