Monday, March 23, 2009

And Then What?

So it seems like just now we get a promise from Geithner to do what Paulson promised to do back then and a few trillion dollars or so ago: buy the 'troubled' assets from the bank so that banks can get on loaning money to each other again.

And then what?

They have to overpay for these assets or else shut down the insitutions that hold them, so they are likely to try and pretend they are worth more than they actually are instead of breaking them up and selling them on the open market, and eventually arriving at an actual market price. This means the government is taking on even more risk, in addition to all the risk from Freddi&Fanny, A.I.G., and whatever else.
I mean, it's blindingly obvious Detriot can't even sell cars anymore, so all that was a complete waste. Are they completely oblivious to the risks?

Unfortunately, I think the recent act of money creation by the Fed indicates the trend; they'll just create money in trillion dollar blocks and pay their bills that way until their creditors start crying foul. I suspect China and others will not be happy. The foreign central banks seem to be co-operating now by staying in U.S. dollars, but I imagine, eventually they'll get tired of seeing their value being stolen out from under them. Once they start moving out of the dollar, inflation will begin in earnest. And should the banks start loaning like they used to, the dollar will likely inflate to oblivion.

And then what?

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