Thursday, March 12, 2020

Statistical Thinking

Life saving medical care is an awesome personal good.

It may totally suck in terms of a collective good.

It is plausible that, right now, there are people in America who cannot have children without modern medical intervention. This is because there have been enough generations now where there were people with access to good healthcare, and they may have had some sort of scare, or their doctor just wanted to make his golf time, so they got the C-section or whatever. In fact, there's a lot of evidence there are too many C-sections going on period, but lets pretend for this particular moment that these are all necessary interventions.

Because if they truly were necessary in one generation, and then the next, and then the next, then perhaps we end up with people who can't have children normally. We certainly end up with high mutational load.

But again, if it's your child, your wife, your situation- you are going to be really happy the intervention is available.

And maybe, if we are really lucky, the tendency of women to get into things like home births, midwives, doulas, etc...- maybe that's a helpful antidote to some of this.

But anyway- when we notice the potential problem, we are not being evil. Like now, when people are noticing COVID19 is killing old and sick people. Or when we notice the statistics on race and IQ, and we aren't being racist, because we aren't trying to randomly apply statistics to individuals.

I've seen even worse today, with an idiot telling me I should be more worried about COVID19 than abortion, which was a reminder to me that we need to keep many, many people who otherwise seem sane away from power. What kind of crazy policies could come out of such a misunderstanding of morality?

Anyway, I called this statistical thinking, but I am not sure it is the best title. Is there a better way to describe this?

Maybe I just will never be able to get this point across, because the emotion from the personal side is too strong in most people.

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