Friday, November 22, 2024

Fighting Multiple Enemies With A House Divided

https://youtu.be/V-iA4mmPlYM?si=nYzy0gs5GuUShWfA

The above video has me more sure than ever that Israel is suffering from a color revolution.  It went from the usual suspicious protests in the streets to some unknown quantity of Israeli bureaucrats actively subverting Netanyahu's government, and is currently in a poor situation were they are fighting enemies with a house divided.

The reason this video reinforces my suspicions is that the pagers and the walkie-talkies gave the Israelis a high level of surveillance over their enemies.  If I had that system, and was about to go invade, I would keep the system functioning.  Malcolm seems place a high value on killing the leadership structure, possibly forgetting to think about how intelligent (or not) that particular leadership structure was, and, in any case, how significant knowing what the enemy is doing as you try to slog through their territory.  

The ability to blow up these pagers and walkie-talkies could have also been more effective in certain combat situations.  If you were fighting a particular battle, and the people you were fighting were mostly cut off from the rest of their compatriots, you could explode them and them use the fog of war to make your enemy assume they were killed in more normal battle circumstances.

But when your government is filled with color revolution people, they don't tell you Oct 7th is about to happen, and then they do stuff to make you look bad.  Blowing up all the pagers and walkie-talkies meant the Israelis went into Lebanon blind- more blind than they would have if they kept the pagers working as a surveillance tool.  

The invasion isn't working particularly well- I think they are doing worse than they did last time.  It is also a bit worrying that Netanyahu and others haven't given particular thought to how to work with factions in Lebanon in order to make sure there isn't a next time.  They probably would have made better progress if they took the time and money they invested in these explosive devices and made friends in Lebanon rather than playing this slick game of consumer terrorism.  Sure, as a surveillance system, this could have been pretty valuable, but the value of the Lebanese government rooting Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon for you is probably higher.

Netanyahu should have stifled his bellicose instincts and first tried to clean house in his own government.  His war goals aren't particularly clear, and the internal forces trying to attack him are so ideologically committed that they are willing to allow and even commit atrocities on all sides to achieve their political goals.  And now he is under a perverse incentive to not stop the wars.  I assume once he does so he will be weak to the political or legal attempts to oust him and put him in jail.  

The color revolution stuff started as Netanyahu tried to reform the Israeli supreme court.  I have no idea if there was much involvement from the U.S. government types who have promoted all the other ones, but I am aware that Israel suffers from the leftist/woke mind virus- likely to a greater degree than the U.S.  


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