Friday, October 17, 2025

How will this Gaza thing play out?

 There are interesting things about this Gaza peace deal.  The first thing is Trump, if nothing else, successfully sucked the air out of the protester's lungs.  Sure, they will try other things.  I hear there's some 'no kings' thing coming up, but frankly, I think it rings too hollow.  There are too few of us actually suggesting kings for it to be presented as a credible thing to protest over.

I think I suggested a while back that a good tactic against the left would be to figure out what they are advocating for and figure out how to deliver on it.  I think it was universal basic income at the time.  Since then the research on UBI suggests it isn't a very good solution to anything, but that's precisely why someone has to step in and figure out a policy that would work and may plausibly look like a UBI to the people if it looks like the left is gaining traction on the issue.  Or just make American middle class again, so we don't care, and think maybe, just maybe, we can make it on our own.

Trump has stolen the left's fire with Gaza, but I don't think he meant to necessarily.  He doesn't like people dying, and lately he seems a bit worried he won't get into heaven, so it is a big deal to him to stop a lot of people dying.  

The second interesting thing about this deal is that there will be some sort of multi-national Arab military force put into Gaza.  There is an opinion out there, perhaps even an educated guess, that most Muslims don't actually like Palestinians.  At least on a national level, we can see that, for instance, the Egyptians have the sort of defenses along the border that would look spot on in a zombie movie.  The Jordanians don't remember them fondly either, as they appear to cause trouble for anyone kind enough to take them in.

So, this multi-national force may not like the Palestinians, but that doesn't mean they won't be better. I think Hamas has just murdered a bunch of Palestinians in the street for some reason or other, so the new crew could maintain a rather low bar of civility and still succeed wildly.  Hamas had no reason to settle down and properly run a country- they would have had to survive on the meager amounts they could tax the Palestinians rather than getting rich from foreign contributions.  

The foreign contributions are now going to the rebuild of Gaza, and the new multi-national force will be, in large part, responsible for protecting this investment.  Palestinian well-being is likely to be a second place consideration.  They may well have good lives as the indigenous people of a new, happening, Mediterranean tourist trap.  But they'll have to avoid all those behaviors that made them unwelcome elsewhere, because they are now being 'protected' by many of those people from elsewhere.

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