Probabilities Regarding China, Russia, and Trump

 I've had this thought:

The best time for China to take over Taiwan is right after Trump is sworn in.

This assumes they've done a lot of other things, like stock up on supplies in case of sanctions or whatever, but the timing is ideal from the standpoint of what exactly the U.S. government is likely to do.

Even though Trump erroneously employed people like John Bolton, Trump still tended to not do crazy military things that would lead to a great amount of death in other countries.  I remember some issue with some Middle Eastern country (probably Iran) shooting something or other down (probably a drone).  Many officials were quite bellicose about what the U.S. response should be, but Trump decided such a response was not proportional.  

So it is unlikely Trump would try to do something really horrific, like blowing up that huge damn and wiping a bunch of mainland Chinese people who didn't have anything to do with the decision to invade Taiwan.   I suppose there's a really small chance he'd decide this or that general was responsible and try to have him assassinated, but the most likely possibility is that Trump will want to make a deal.  

There's already enough information possessed by the Russians to start a large investigation into all sorts of criminality various members of the deep state have been up to over the years.  Just the bioweapon labs in Ukraine alone ought to be enough.  But obviously there is more than that.  The younger generation of Biden, Pelosi, Romney- were all in Ukraine getting paid for something or other.  

This makes me think back to when Pelosi made that random but highly visible visit to Taiwan.  I would assume that, if they had got up to anything in Taiwan, it would be a kinder, gentler version of the sort of criminality they got up to in Ukraine, but it is quite possible the same sort of crew who got up to no good in the Ukraine also did something in Taiwan.

But all of the nonsense various deep state people got up to means Russia and, possibly, China have a stockpile of information that would make very useful legal ammunition for Trump.  He could have a real chance of draining the swamp with this stuff.  And I suspect that this 'stuff' points directly to things that are illegal to do in the U.S.- not just stuff that Russia and China didn't want them to do.

Zelenskyy is in big trouble and may want to rat out some of these deep state actors in order to secure himself a chance to live out his life somewhere outside of a jail.  This is not going to happen in Ukraine where even a very anti-Russian person would have several reasons to hate him.

A lot of moving parts here, and not really even a good idea about what sort of deal Trump would make, assuming we are talking about China taking Taiwan.  But Trump is smart enough to have actually noticed all of our war gaming research has shown we can't do a damn thing about China taking Taiwan.  China worries about two things- being cut off from trade and the extremely damaging but ultimately pointless carnage a dying empire can inflict on their population.  Trump is the least likely to do the latter.  And in terms of trade, regardless of whatever sanctions he might put on initially, he loves making deals.  So he would also be the fastest to try and get back to some sort of trading agreement.

And if, in the process, a whole bunch of  the swamp gets convicted and shunted out of Trump's way here in the U.S.- well, I suspect Trump would be rather appreciative.