Contra Niche
Saturday, November 1, 2025
Is this strategy? How well will the lack of EBT mesh with deportations?
Friday, October 17, 2025
How will this Gaza thing play out?
There are interesting things about this Gaza peace deal. The first thing is Trump, if nothing else, successfully sucked the air out of the protester's lungs. Sure, they will try other things. I hear there's some 'no kings' thing coming up, but frankly, I think it rings too hollow. There are too few of us actually suggesting kings for it to be presented as a credible thing to protest over.
I think I suggested a while back that a good tactic against the left would be to figure out what they are advocating for and figure out how to deliver on it. I think it was universal basic income at the time. Since then the research on UBI suggests it isn't a very good solution to anything, but that's precisely why someone has to step in and figure out a policy that would work and may plausibly look like a UBI to the people if it looks like the left is gaining traction on the issue. Or just make American middle class again, so we don't care, and think maybe, just maybe, we can make it on our own.
Trump has stolen the left's fire with Gaza, but I don't think he meant to necessarily. He doesn't like people dying, and lately he seems a bit worried he won't get into heaven, so it is a big deal to him to stop a lot of people dying.
The second interesting thing about this deal is that there will be some sort of multi-national Arab military force put into Gaza. There is an opinion out there, perhaps even an educated guess, that most Muslims don't actually like Palestinians. At least on a national level, we can see that, for instance, the Egyptians have the sort of defenses along the border that would look spot on in a zombie movie. The Jordanians don't remember them fondly either, as they appear to cause trouble for anyone kind enough to take them in.
So, this multi-national force may not like the Palestinians, but that doesn't mean they won't be better. I think Hamas has just murdered a bunch of Palestinians in the street for some reason or other, so the new crew could maintain a rather low bar of civility and still succeed wildly. Hamas had no reason to settle down and properly run a country- they would have had to survive on the meager amounts they could tax the Palestinians rather than getting rich from foreign contributions.
The foreign contributions are now going to the rebuild of Gaza, and the new multi-national force will be, in large part, responsible for protecting this investment. Palestinian well-being is likely to be a second place consideration. They may well have good lives as the indigenous people of a new, happening, Mediterranean tourist trap. But they'll have to avoid all those behaviors that made them unwelcome elsewhere, because they are now being 'protected' by many of those people from elsewhere.
Sunday, September 28, 2025
The Haunting at Youtube
Monday, February 17, 2025
Why I Believe Elon Musk
Tuesday, February 4, 2025
USAID: A GOOD FIRST STEP
Monday, January 27, 2025
Twelve Federal Reserves
One of the potential ways of rehabilitating at least part of our economy is to force the Fed to be what it was supposed to, if I remember the concept correctly. Of course, the main call to do anything to the Federal Reserve in recent years has been to end it- an idea I am partial to, but I have worries about who ends up essentially controlling the U.S. Dollar if we don't in some way.
The Fed is comprised of 12 regional banks, and they should be setting policies based on the needs of their individual regions. The venture capitalist era in California, inflated asset prices on Wall Street- most of the money goes to big players. Then, when they decide to raise the interest rate- they are rather obviously trying to effect the people- they focused on making people lose their jobs.
But what if there were 12 independent reserve banks?
NY sees the inflation in the stock market and sets its rates higher. Meanwhile, another reserve bank is in a region where the cost of living is cheaper, and it seems clear there is room for actual productivity rather than glorified casino games. Not only will the people in the poorer region benefit from the lower rate, but it also incentivizes the East and West Coast financiers to start projects in the poorer region. It would have a decentralizing effect.
Incidentally, a micro-version of this problem lies in Korea. Seoul is so absolutely dominant that everyone wants to live in Seoul, but housing prices have risen to insane levels. This is one of the reasons their fertility rates are so low- they feel it necessary to live in Seoul, but the prices are so high, the idea of having children there seems absurd. Similar issues in Japan, Singapore, etc...
The big cities are good to have if people are going to the big city, making money, finding a compatible spouse, and then returning to a location more suitable for raising children. If people feel stuck in the city, well, it seldom encourages large families.
But these economies ultimately need families as they are little better than ponzi schemes, given that they are based on forever growth, and, ultimately, the only way you get real growth is with more people. It would be good to fix the economy so it wasn't so directly dependent on growth, but that's going to take a bit more time to fix. Since we have an economy so heavily based on debt, price signals are more than a bit fuzzy right now.
I think this was the way the Fed was originally conceived. I suspect it is more politically feasible to reform it along the lines of its original charter than it is to end it. We haven't even been able to audit it. But there are likely legal means to force it to behave as it was conceived.