Briggs recently posted Open Discussion: Universities Are Dead, But Still Haven’t Dropped.
Here is when I think they really drop- when the parents of the potential students no longer have any particular fond remembrance of them.
I think this will come soon. I certainly know I feel scammed, and given my own demographic's inability to do proper family formation, I suspect universities are in for trouble soon.
Obviously, learning is important, and that it is absent in universities is quite ably described by Briggs.
But there is, from the 'university as product' veiwpoint, something missing. Clearly these administrators are all playing the short game, but the short game encourages dysgenic, exploitative, and non-procreative behaviors, which means fewer students in the next generation, and of those alumni who have children- fewer who view the university with any fondness at all.
Just like with churches, communities, etc... - the most effective long term bet is getting people married. Don't imagine there will be somebody else's kids- there will be, but they won't even be the modern pretender college material. Hell, they aren't now.
The points I made inA Case For Introvert Rule still stand. I look at this stuff and can see these administrators are pushing for short term gain, and socially determined dopamine hits, rather than maintaining the integrity of the institution. Additionally, I can see the break point. Presumably they should be able to see it as well. But they can't do anything about it, because it would take them off the dopamine train. They would be labeled un-pc and begin losing social standing among the foolish, and their neurology won't let them withstand it.