Thursday, November 10, 2016

Good Punditry Versus Bad Punditry

Anonymous Conservative musing on the likelihood that the vikings may have just been looking for female companionship:

Makes one a little nervous looking at China, given we are surely going to stiff them on our debt once the bill becomes big enough and the global economic system collapses.

The viking stuff was published recently. Sounds like the rich guys started keeping more women, and the poor guys had to figure out how to make a name for themselves. Riches, plunder, and maybe even a few female imports. Or male exports, depending.

However accurate the hypothesis about the Viking is, Anonymous Conservative did classic good punditry move by noticing there is a pattern that one might apply to China. Especially if he's right about the debt.

Then there's bad punditry. Pardon Hillary. This from a guy who did a mea culpa election night:

In business school, there is a famous project we do in marketing that teaches an important lesson. In that project, a bunch of Ivy Leaguers are asked to estimate the percentage of people in the US who snow ski. We all look around the table and say, "I ski and you ski and she skis, so it must be about 80%", when in fact the percentage is in the single digits. The lesson is to not make predictions for whole markets (and countries) based on one's own personal outlook and experience. I and many other clearly did not understand large swathes of the electorate, something I want to think about for a bit.

This is almost the anti-thesis of noticing a pattern. Decades of D.C. corruption need to be uncovered and neutralized. This stuff gets into the bureaucracy and becomes entrenched. Now, Hilary is out of office, so is not a priority, but the special prosecutor has to be appointed- just like Trump promised during the election. It would be profoundly stupid to violate a campaign promise for...., what exactly? It is also part and parcel of not being Bush/Clinton/Obama.

Indictments, firings, etc...- yes, I am worried about unidentified bureaucrats more than I am about the Clintons.

I am also more worried about China than I am about whatever Coyote thinks this gesture would do for America. I suggest he continue to think about how he did not understand large swathes of the electorate.

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