Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Will the Coming Wave Of City Bankruptcies Interfere With Trump's Infrastructure Plan?

Changes in the Government Accounting Standards may cause trouble in the municipal bond market in the coming summer:

The provisions in Statement 73 are effective for fiscal years beginning after June 15, 2015—except those provisions that address employers and governmental nonemployer contributing entities for pensions that are not within the scope of Statement 68, which are effective for fiscal years beginning after June 15, 2016. The provisions in Statement 74 are effective for fiscal years beginning after June 15, 2016. The provisions in Statement 75 are effective for fiscal years beginning after June 15, 2017.

Looking at this overview, it appears that these regulations are moving various unfunded retirement liabilities from places like the notes section to the employer's balance sheet.

As the unbalanced nature of the balance sheets become clear, the bonds will become worth less. More and more cities will become officially bankrupt. Many already are, technically, but have been able to make a charade of it for some time.

Needless to say, various politicians will try to get D.C. to bail them out, which is trouble in itself, but I see another problem.

City governments would normally be involved with infrastructure projects, but if the project is contingent on their ability to function in anyway, then Trump's infrastructure projects may be left unfinished. Indeed, some of these city politicians would brazenly use it as leverage to get a bailout.

Most of the states aren't much better off, and Puerto Rico is going to try and become a state, mostly because they are unhappy with not getting a bailout themselves.

Hat Tip to DHunplugged. I should also mention the Survival Podcast.

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