Tuesday, November 1, 2016
What Happens After The Known Waves Collapse?
While I generally agree, I particularly disagree that innovation necessarily need cost so much more. Part of the 'complexity' people are seeing in research is about the centralizing trend in funding. People are chasing after the same dollars, from the same people, who demand the same thoughts. So research has ground to a slow crawl. But innovation is not linear, indeed, it is basically accidental.
We need more hypotheses that are testable.
We need, whenever possible, cheaper tests.
Expensive stuff should not be funded through government. Well, probably nothing should be funded by government, but if you are funding expensive stuff via business, you are usually doing so because you think you can get a return on investment. What's the return on investment at CERN? Okay, maybe you just think CERN is cool, so go crowdfund it.
Multi-variant computer models exist and actually confound science because all that computing power is shiny and expensive stuff that impresses bureaucrats.
So, within certain parameters, I agree with Dr. Tainter's position. But it still begs for decentralization. It is, at the core, and argument for the necessity of peaceful decentralization. Something libertarians want, and conservatives have at least pretending to want since before my time.
Then there's this other thing:
The migration patterns of industrialization will, at some point end. Interestingly enough, as it slows right now in China, it also seems nationalism is becoming more popular. To some extent though, the full expression of nationalism is marred a bit due to nuclear weapons. War has become expensive.
But there's still some need to move, especially for people like me. I should have traveled when I was younger. This was not my inclination, and it did not dawn on me until recently. So, in some ways, it may be one of those 'too late' revelations. Possibly there's already something else I should be focused on.
A similar possibility exists with nationalism. As industrialization runs its course, what happens next? Do we really finally settle down and put down roots, or does some other wave wash across the earth? I would prefer something more old fashioned, with my descendants living in a place where I planted trees. But these governments are addicted to their current ways, even as they try to break out of the American trap, they continue it.
There have been some discussions about choke points in the development of the species. At least in sci-fi, you get speculation about what it takes for a species to go inter-planetary. There's certainly a high cost to first getting out there, and then to make it profitable. Presumably it would become easier after that, especially as habitable places are created. I guess this is what this post is about- trying to see past that point where the known waves collapse.